Trump’s Iran peace deal costs Putin $110m a day

 Donald Trump’s peace deal with Iran has cost Vladimir Putin $110m (£84m) a day in lost oil revenues, new analysis shows.

A plunge in oil prices since the US president announced an agreement to move towards ending the war has hit Russia’s oil export sales.

In less than two weeks, the price of Brent crude has dropped from $87 per barrel to $72, below where it was when the war with Iran first broke out.

Benjamin Hilgenstock, director of the Center for Geoeconomics and Resilience at the KSE Institute, said a $15 drop in oil prices would reduce Putin’s revenues from oil and oil products by $110m per day compared to May levels.

Mr Hilgenstock stock: “At some point we’re going to return to the market as it was before the Iran war, and it could be potentially an even more oversupplied market. 

“So this is going to get worse for Russia and the pain is going to be serious, because the Russian budget didn’t perform well even during the period of windfall earnings.”

Russia’s earnings from oil export have more than doubled from $10.4bn at the start of the year after the war sent oil prices soaring far above $100 a barrel in the spring.

It provided a lifeline for Putin’s ailing economy, which has been hit hard by the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine and is on the brink of recession.

Mr Hilgenstock said the financial pressure on Putin was likely to ramp up fast. Oil prices are expected to fall further if a more permanent Middle East peace deal is reached, particularly if it brings Iranian oil back onto the mainstream market.

The US and Iran signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding on June 17 (first announced on June 14) to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Traders are hopeful of an imminent resolution to the conflict after mediators Qatar and Pakistan said the first round of negotiations between the US and Iran for a final deal had ended with “encouraging progress”.

04:09pm

Tech rally undermined by hot inflation figures

The day started with high hopes for US stocks, after Micron’s blockbuster results last night. 

However, sentiment on Wall Street was rattled after the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation surpassed 4pc for the first time in three years.

The tech-dominated Nasdaq Composite is currently down 0.4, after a bruising week which leaves it nearly 4pc lower than five days ago. The S&P 500 is doing slightly better and is currently trading 0.4pc up.

British equities are having a better day, with the FTSE 100 up 0.8pc. The FTSE 250, which is more reflective of Britain’s domestic firms, is trading 0.5pc higher.

Meanwhile, oil prices are up a nudge. Brent crude is up 0.3pc at $73.28 per barrel, still hovering around levels last seen before the war in Iran.

03:30pm

Saturday jobs in ‘huge decline’, says Whately

Britain has experienced a “huge decline” in the number of Saturday jobs available for young people, the shadow work and pensions secretary has said.

Speaking about the growing problem of youth unemployment, Helen Whately said: “We’ve seen a huge decline in those Saturday jobs and casual work opportunities.”

She added that increases in the youth rate of minimum wage have meant that “somebody who is younger is not going to be more typically cheaper, so they’re more likely to go to a person with experience”.

She told the British Chambers of Commerce annual conference: It becomes so expensive that they [businesses] can’t afford to employ somebody.”