Iran: A military, economic and political disaster?

 The war in Iran is now over a month old, and where are we?

That is the question that both the Left and the Right are asking at this time. It seemed so easy: Kill Khomeini, the regime would fall, and a government would arise that would be more friendly to Israel and the West.

However, this scenario has not played out. Instead, although beaten up and hurting, Iran is standing firm with seemingly no intentions of surrendering or even making concessions. Indeed, they continue to issue threats as missiles rain down on Tel Aviv and American bases in the region.

Civilians do not have the intelligence information that the government has, but it seems like engaging Iran at this time was a massive miscalculation. This is not a small Caribbean country with rusting World War II armaments. Rather, it is a modern and well-equipped country with state-of-the-art missile technology, fanatical leaders—or what is left of them—and a populace split between those who want freedom and a Western-style government, and those who are loyal to the status quo.

The idea that a week or so of bombing would bring them to their knees now seems, at best, as a foolish notion. There have been American military casualties, and many more will follow if the US decides to go the ground troops option. Allegedly, the US military has destroyed most of Iran’s Navy and Air Force.

However, keep in mind that Iran still has a military with over 350,000 regular troops, 60,000 Revolutionary Guards—and thousands more in reserve. This does not seem like a country that is on the brink. Quite the contrary, it is digging in and promising to continue until victory. How much of this is bluster only time will tell.

Like a Midwestern American city that is besieged by a tornado, the Iranians may duck into the root cellar, cover their heads, and when the storm blows over, come out and survey the damage—and declare victory.

The Straight of Hormuz is yet another issue. So far, it seems like Iran is still controlling what passes and what doesn’t pass in those waters. This introduces the economic angle. Over 20 percent of the world’s oil passes through this body of water along with 30 percent of all fertilizer products. Certainly, this is already having major impacts on the world economy and here in the US, with the Third World’s agriculture hit hard by the loss of fertilizer. Moreover, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea is another economic choke point that the Iranians have threatened to close, also. Doing so would add more woe to the already mounting supply loss.

In the meantime, the mixed signals and confusing statements coming out of Washington is a source of consternation for the American public. Most recognize that Iran has been a thorn in the side of Israel and the West. But to engage Iran, where there seems to be no clear path to victory, is agitating many Americans right across the political spectrum.

Most concerning for Republicans is the grumbling from the MAGA loyalists. While most conservatives still support Trump, the young and restless right are having a difficult time digesting this war. Indeed, even once cheerleading pundits have turned on this adventure.

If the White House does not bring a quick end to this conflict, the midterms may turn out to be a disaster for the GOP and a dark harbinger for the 2028 elections.

No American wants to see another “forever war.” But they may indeed get one.

How much did Israel and Netanyahu’s agenda play a part in this war is up for speculation. However, the question must be asked if both men totally misjudged the timing and the logistics needed to fight a war with Iran. It certainly would seem that way.

The issue now is the effects of this war, should it proceed into a long, drawn-out affair. The economic result could be catastrophic. The political landscape may see a cataclysm.

But what of the human cost? How many lives will be lost on both sides? Will there truly be a victor on either side?

The Middle East has been a world flashpoint for decades. Wars have arisen and gone. Terrorism spikes and then recedes. But this war feels different.

The next few weeks, or perhaps months, may determine the world’s direction for decades.

In an already volatile world, this war may end in a way we have never seen before.

The common citizen can only hope for peace as this part of history plays out.