How Russia is being fooled by Ukraine – from mannequins with guns to sabotage

 In the days after Christmas last year, there were murmurs on the Russian social media claiming that Denis Kapustin, a far-right Russian opposition leader fighting alongside Ukraine, had been killed.

A Moscow-born Russian nationalist, Kapustin painted a complicated history of espousing his political agenda while remaining steadfast in his support against Russian imperialism and the invasion of Ukraine.

He moved to Kyiv in 2017, and founded the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and fought against Moscow’s full-scale invasion in 2022, earning him a place on Russia’s federal registry of “terrorists and extremists” in March 2023.

On the morning of 27 December, confirmation arrived from the RDK. “Last night, our commander, Denis ‘White Rex’ Kapustin, died heroically while carrying out a combat mission in the Zaporizhzhia sector of the front. According to preliminary reports, it was an FPV drone [that killed him],” they posted on their official Telegram channel.

Russian war bloggers did the rest. Within hours, the news spread like wildfire, with pro-Russia accounts cheering the fall of one of the fiercest opponents of Vladimir Putin.

But their celebration was short-lived. On New Year’s Day, Kyrylo Budanov, then chief of the Ukrainian intelligence services (GUR), released a video statement, alongside a very much alive Kapustin.

“Welcome back to life, Denis Kapustin,” Budanov quipped in the video shared with The i Paper.

The plot unfolded in the quiet corridors of the Ukrainian intelligence services. “Russia had ordered the murder of Denis Kapustin by the special services of their state, and allocated half a million dollars for it,” a GUR official shared.

With the knowledge of an impending attack on Kapustin at hand, the Ukrainian services got to work to not only foil the assassination attempt but also use the opportunity to hoodwink the Russians.

“As a result of the complex special operation which lasted more than a month, [Kapustin’s life] was saved, and a circle of people – the ones who ordered the crime in the Russian special services and the executors, were also identified,” they said.

A believable story had to be created, then evidence was built to support the “legend” that Kapustin had indeed perished. This was created in the form of a series of videos. “The first, from the perspective of the attack drones, showed the drone flying into the minibus carrying Kapustin, and a second clip showed the aftermath of the strike — a burning car. That was all that was needed,” the official said.

Ukrainian operatives, posing as executioners, presented the footage to Russian special services, who believed the evidence and paid them the bounty. Although the officials did not share how the payment was received, Russians are known to recruit and pay saboteurs online using cryptocurrency.

“This will be used to significantly strengthen the combat capabilities of the GUR special forces,” said a proud Budanov in the video.

However, Reynolds added, unlike the former Soviet military, where deception was an integral part of war, Western militaries focused more on economy of force: “The structure of Soviet armies, its doctrine, its military culture, like maskirovka [literally “something masked”] placed an importance on deception, dictating that conventional forces would put about 30 per cent of their effort into their deception plan.”

The Ukrainians know this and have used it to their advantage. “Ukrainian forces, I would say, have adopted their own doctrine culture in some areas…and now they’re really evolving along their own path. The Ukrainian military is quite unique at the moment, in many ways,” Reynolds said.

How Ukraine is outgunning Russia

While Russia and Ukraine both employ similar techniques of deception and sabotage, Kyiv has outgunned Moscow when it comes to domestic sabotage campaigns, said Nichita Gurcov, a senior analyst at monitoring group Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (Acled).

“Ukraine has expanded its sabotage footprint from occupied territories to Russia itself and is mounting increasingly sophisticated acts of sabotage by combining local recruits and resistance groups with professional military and intelligence,” Gurcov said.

While deception, decoys and sabotage do not necessarily hinder either side’s ability to continue the conventional war, they do have a psychological effect of inflicting symbolic damage, he added.

The optics of a successful sabotage operation and an active shadow war helps Ukraine to build morale. That may have been one of the intentions of the operation involving Kapustin.

“That kind of activity shapes people’s perceptions of what is possible and impacts morale, not just within Ukraine but also among international audiences,” Reynolds said.